US Tech 100 (US100) – Surges to 21,319 on AI Strength and Cooling Inflation

Summary

• Current Price: 21,319
• Resistance: 21,500 (next key level)
• Support: 20,000 (psychological floor)

The Nasdaq 100 has staged a 30% rally since April's lows, confirming a bullish breakout above the resistance at 20,220. Short-term momentum remains strong, but traders should watch for pullbacks or profit-taking with the price nearing overbought territory.

2. Fundamental Factors Affecting the Index

AI & Tech-Sector Tailwinds

• Semiconductor and AI names (notably Nvidia) are driving market leadership.
• Nvidia surged 6% after securing an AI chip contract for a major Saudi data center project.
• Broader optimism around AI adoption and infrastructure investment continues to boost growth stocks.

Macroeconomic Support

• Inflation Data (April): Just 0.2% m/m, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the narrative for potential rate cuts later in 2025.
• Trade Policy Relief: A 90-day tariff truce (excluding China) has helped improve global trade sentiment, reducing headwinds for multinational tech firms.

3. Key Takeaway for Traders

The Nasdaq 100's strength supports a risk-on environment, which typically boosts high-beta currencies (e.g., AUD, NZD) and pressures safe havens (e.g., JPY, CHF).

For Forex Traders:

• Strong Nasdaq = bullish signal for AUDJPY, NZDJPY
• Reversal or sharp pullback = risk-off cue, likely JPY strength

US100 – W1 Timeframe

The weekly timeframe chart of US100 shows an impulsive bearish break of structure, followed by a retracement almost reaching the supply zone responsible for the initial bearish impulse. The lower timeframe is expected to provide more clarity and confluence.

US100 – D1 Timeframe

The price action on the daily timeframe chart of US100 has created an SBR pattern, with the inducement and FVG region visible. The supply zone also falls within the optimal zone of the Fibonacci retracement tool, further confirming the bearish sentiment.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target- 20019.45

Invalidation- 22381.96

CONCLUSION

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