Fundamental Analysis
Bank of Japan Intervention History
The Bank of Japan has stepped in multiple times over recent years to counter excessive yen depreciation. The strongest USDJPY declines occurred in November–December 2022 and 2023, July–August 2024, and between January and April 2025. Although not every move was officially confirmed as an intervention, the timing and size of these declines suggest direct or indirect BoJ influence.
Price Levels Linked to Intervention Risk
Historically, the sharpest reversals have emerged when USDJPY traded above levels considered overstretched by Japanese authorities. Past pullbacks ranged from 300 to over 1,000 pips, though not all resulted in immediate or sustained declines.
As current prices approach zones that previously triggered action, the probability of renewed intervention increases. This does not guarantee a major reversal, but it limits the upside and raises the risk of sudden corrective moves.
Technical Outlook
USDJPY Daily Chart
USDJPY trades in the upper band of a bullish linear regression channel from the April lows. The latest daily support sits at 153.63.
With price approaching the 2024–2025 highs that coincided with past interventions, a short-term pullback is likely while the pair remains below the November monthly POC. Potential downside targets lie at bullish volume nodes between 154.63 and 154.13, areas that could attract new buyers aiming for fresh 2025 highs.
If the correction breaks decisively—confirmed by two consecutive lower lows—below 153.62, a broader daily bearish reversal may develop, opening the path toward 152.81 and the October demand zone at 151.93.
